How AI helps fintechs offer credit responsibly, without sacrificing speed or scale

Last December, my friend bought a phone using Buy Now, Pay Later. ₦200,000. Split into four payments. No interest. By February, she had missed two payments, incurred late fees, and was already juggling another BNPL debt from a furniture store. Her case isn’t unique, and that’s the problem.

Globally, up to 30% of BNPL users have missed at least one payment (CFPB, 2022). In Nigeria, informal BNPL users report late payment rates of ~25–35% (EFInA, 2023). BNPL (Buy Now, Pay Later) is everywhere now. Some people call it Pay small small. However, the convenience that drives adoption is also what makes it dangerous when deployed without the right safeguards.

For providers, the stakes are even higher: default risk, rising fraud, customer churn, and regulatory scrutiny. So, how do you scale BNPL without slipping into chaos? You do it with smarter systems, powered by AI.

BNPL in Africa: A Growing Market, A Growing Risk

Nigeria’s BNPL market is projected to grow from $2.8B in 2023 to $5.59B by 2029 (11.2% CAGR). Across Africa, BNPL is becoming a key enabler for sectors like e-commerce, edtech, healthtech, and mobility. But many providers still rely on rigid, rules-based underwriting. They approve users based on minimal KYC, without truly understanding income flows or financial behaviour.

The result? High default rates and limited repayment recovery, despite increasing adoption.

Let’s be clear:

👉🏼 57% of BNPL users in emerging markets are under 35 (Statista, 2023)

👉🏼 45% of BNPL users in sub-Saharan Africa juggle multiple credit products at once (McKinsey Africa, 2022)

Consumers want:

• 2-click approvals
• Flexible repayment schedules
• No paperwork, no stress

Providers need:

• Accurate risk prediction
• Fraud prevention
• Customer retention
• Compliance

Balancing both requires technology that’s fast, flexible, and deeply intelligent - AI.

How AI Solves the BNPL Risk Equation

Smart BNPL is more than just UX. It’s real-time, data-driven decision-making — using AI to power personalisation, predict risk, and adapt as users evolve. Here’s how AI makes BNPL safer and more scalable:

✅ Predictive Risk Assessment

Go beyond manual paperwork and static credit scores. AI analyses behaviour patterns, account activity, spending cycles, and third-party signals to detect early signs of financial distress before a payment is missed. 👉🏼 AI-driven alternative data models can reduce default rates by up to 25% (World Bank, 2022)

✅ Personalised Repayment Plans

AI aligns repayment schedules with income patterns (e.g. payday-linked plans, month-end plans). Build trust by reducing default risk and friction.

✅ Adaptive Credit Limits

AI adjusts available credit in real time, based on user stability. Spike in income? Increase the limit. Signs of strain? Pull back gently.

✅ Fraud Detection Without Friction

Using device signals, IP anomalies, and behavioural biometrics, AI models can detect fraud without putting up frustrating roadblocks for real users.

✅ Explainability & Ethics

Centric AI’s models are built with transparency in mind, so you can audit decisions, explain outcomes, and stay compliant. While iterating as many times as possible.

Bonus impact: 👉🏼 Providers using adaptive credit limits and AI-personalised repayment plans saw 15–20% higher repayment rates (McKinsey Africa, 2023)

The Cost of Getting It Wrong

If you’re offering BNPL in Africa, you’re not just offering a product, you’re shaping financial futures.

🛑 Bad underwriting = lost revenue

🛑 Poor personalisation = churn

🛑 Missed red flags = reputational damage

🛑 High fraud = regulatory heat

Case in point: In Kenya, the Central Bank revoked 337 digital lender licenses in 2022 over poor underwriting and consumer protection breaches (CBK, 2022).

Build Smarter BNPL AI models, Without Code

With Centric AI, you don’t need a team of data scientists or a six-month dev cycle.

👉🏼 Launch personalised BNPL models in hours

👉🏼 Use your existing user data + behavioural signals

👉🏼 Create no-code AI workflows tailored to your market

Whether you're a fintech, lender, or embedded finance provider, Centric AI helps you approve faster, personalise better, and predict smarter, all while protecting your bottom line.

Book a demo to see how AI works for you in real-time.

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